Written by: Katie Jung
Edited by: Ihita Ghosh
Introduction
Throughout the past 72 years, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (otherwise known as NATO), has existed to secure the alliance of 30 countries around the world (NATO 2021). As a result, this has not only enhanced the fundamental U.S. goal of expressing its democratic values, but has also protected and preserved the culture of various countries by preventing conflict through consultation. However, with this ray of hope and responsibility, also comes great challenges - namely, Russia. According to Independent Co, a British online newspaper, the fundamental basis for NATO being created was to provide collective security against the Soviet Union, which includes the Baltic states as well. The Baltic States refers to the three sovereign states on the Eastern coast of the Baltic Sea: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which reside under NATO's protection. However, their security has recently become severely threatened by Russia's presence as Matt Cesare, a member of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, reports how Russia's military is currently present and expanding on the eastern borders of Latvia and Estonia(2020). As a result, Karen DeYoung, senior national security correspondent for The Washington Post, finds that the Baltics are dissatisfied with NATO, and desire a stronger NATO commitment to counter Russia's ongoing threat (2016). Hence, this chain of events calls for the analysis of NATO increasing defense commitments to the Baltic States.
The Russian Incentive
Before coming to a reasonable conclusion regarding NATO security, it is critical to look at Russia's historical and present state when it comes to foreign relations. Currently, the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, is struggling politically. Indeed, according to the Moscow Times, an independent news source in Russia, Putin’s popularity has fallen to 59% (2020), which is historically the lowest it has ever been amid the coronavirus outbreak (CNBC 2020). This is extremely problematic for Putin’s power, as Samuel Greene, director of the Russia Institute at King's College, explains how public opinion plays a significant role in determining Russian politics. So while some may argue that Putin has no political incentive to interfere in the Baltic region, they don’t account for the fact that Putin, as a president,relies on popularity. Looking from a Russian point of view, invading the Baltic states would be viewed as a huge victory, which would then boost national pride. In fact, Aron Peters, a journalist for the New European, reports how before invading Crimea in 2014, Putin’s approval rating was dropping due to economic instability, similar to what is happening now with COVID. However, after annexing Crimea, Putin’s monthly approval rating skyrocketed from an average of 65% to 81% (2021). Recently, Russia has also invaded Ukraine as of February 24 of 2022. Paul Kirby, editor for BBC News reports on this devastating event by describing how President Putin aimed to overrun Ukraine and depose its government, ending its desire to join NATO, which is negatively viewed as a Western threat against Russia. This makes sense as Deutsche Welle, one of Germany’s most successful international media outlets, reports how the role of NATO was founded specifically to counter the Soviet Empire. These two events are critical to note, as history tells us that Russia has invaded countries to gain political and economic power to disadvantage NATO’s expansionary goals. That being said, how can this be reflected in the Baltic States?
The Russian Threat
Russia has made it crystal clear that they intend to invade the Baltic States. Indeed, according to Michael Peck, writer for the National Interest, air defense is dangerously weak in the Baltic states (2021). Problematically, Russia has quickly caught on as Jari Tanner, an experienced news reporter, correspondent, and financial journalist with over 20 years of international experience in the real-time news industry, reports how in June of 2021, Estonia reported Russian fighter jets violating their airspace, for the fourth time that year (2021). While some may argue that Russia wants to avoid conflict with NATO at all costs, and wouldn't dare to touch the Baltic States, Heinrich Braub, a Senior Associate Fellow at the Program of Sicherheit und Verteidigung states that Russia has made it extremely clear they will forcibly attain geo-political goals, as long as it is considered a manageable risk. This means that as long as the Baltics have a weak air defense system, Russia's threat will only escalate (2021). Along with Russia's aggressiveness in air space, Guillaume Lasconjarias, defense education advisor to the Ministry of Education and journalist for the SJMS, reports how Russia has been building up A2AD capabilities surrounding the entirety of the Baltic region, which is a strategic military device designed to prevent an adversary from entering an operational area (2021). Simply put, A2AD is a technology that allows Russia to detect NATO troops from great distances, preventing them from interfering in certain areas, and allowing Russia to respond accordingly. This is key to note because not only does this confirm Russia’s intent for taking over the Baltics, but this also means that Russia has the potential to completely deter NATO influence. Luckily, defense commitments to the Baltic States can be increased through two ways. First, by acting quickly. According to Jen Judson, land warfare reporter for Defense News, Russia would not dare to test NATO if air defense units were deployed on a persistent basis in the Baltic states(2019). Along with this, Dominik Jankowski, Chief Specialist for Crisis Management at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland,explains how the earlier NATO responds, the more vulnerable Russian systems are, furthering that increasing NATO defense on the Baltics would effectively deter the A2/AD threat. Second, by reallocating resources. Indeed, Sebastien Roblin, writer for the National Interest,corroborates how NATO could reallocate roughly $24 billion of its $700 billion annual budget to existing systems allowing to pay for capabilities that allow the airbases in the Baltics to safely operate (National Interest 2019). In other words, while Russia’s A2AD capabilities are a threat now, NATO can take advantage of the fact that they aren’t fully developed yet, by interfering now.That is why it is imperative for NATO to increase defense commitments to the Baltic States as Russia's motive and intent have already been clearly established. However, if this isn’t done, it could result in “The Baltic Disaster.”
Baltic Disaster
It is imperative to consider what it would be like following a Russian invasion. From a futuristic perspective, this would lead to several catastrophic long-term impacts. First, if Russia were able to successfully surround the Baltics with its A2AD capabilities, it would cut off any NATO support (USAF 2021). As a result, Felix Chang, former intelligence officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency, explains how if NATO were to do nothing, Russia could easily sever the land and air routes into the Baltic States with its advanced air force capabilities and would launch air and missile strikes to prevent any NATO intervention (FPRI 2017). This could potentially result in billions of dollars in economic damages and at least tens of thousands of people dead (Defense360 2018).
Lastly, and most importantly, evaluating the cultural and political repercussions of such an event should also be taken into account. Again, it is crucial to note NATO’s democratic values when it comes to expansion, as it truly defines the peace and security we have seen develop in our world. Indeed, according to Alexis De Tocqueville,French political theorist and author of “Democracy in America, individualism, and independence play a significant role in shaping the mindsets of democratic countries. However, Tocqueville furthers that In other words, in order for democracies to flourish, societies and civilizations must share the collective goals of equality and togetherness. This can be reflected in NATO, Russia, and the Baltic States through both individualistic and collective goals. According to Kate Shellnut, a senior news editor at Christianity Today magazine, ever since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, one of the central points of conflict in Russia has dealt with government penalties for practicing faith outside the Russian Orthodox Church (2022). For this reason, it is apparent that following a Russian invasion, countries are stripped of their culture and religion. Problematically, this would inevitably be projected to the Baltic States as seen in Crimea. Thus, this only emphasizes the importance of NATO protecting the Baltic States, as it would promote the collective goal of supporting individualistic values - in this case, Baltic culture. Indeed, according to the Song of Freedom at the Estonian Song and Dance festival, which celebrates Estonian liberty from Russia, “The tradition of…preserving Estonian language and Culture…are considered key factors in establishing Estonian independence.” If Russia were to invade, this culture too would be taken away as millions of Baltic citizens would be forced to conform to Russian practices, which is known as forced religious synchrony.Michele J. Gelfand, a Professor of Organizational Behavior at the Stanford Graduate School of Business explained, “The Cultural evolutionary trade-off of ritualistic synchrony,” that communities who shared “a sense of collective effervescence,” or religious common ground led to increased conformity, aggression, and destructive obedience due to a lack of individualism (pg. 7). Hence, this tells the world that NATO’s overall democratic stance should contain the collective goal of promoting individualism and freedom. Otherwise, obstacles like Russia would prevent this from happening.
Conclusion
The formation of NATO was founded to provide collective support, security, and protection from adversaries and threats, namely, Russia. Thus, based on the facts of the current situation regarding the Baltic States, NATO must take action now as it is a fact that Russia has invaded Baltic airspace on numerous occasions, it is a fact that Russia has built defensive and offensive A2AD capabilities to prevent future NATO interference, and it is a fact that Russia has clearly demonstrated aggressive intentions in the Baltic region. Looking at these facts, it is clear that this is merely a pattern of Russia's behavior, as we have historically seen this occur with the annexation of Crimea and Ukraine, both fueled by the desire for more political, social, economic, and future power. Therefore, as an organization whose duty is to protect member countries in danger, NATO must act quickly and increase its defense commitments to the Baltic states before it is too late, and before millions of lives are put at risk. Along with NATO's duty to protect lives, NATO must also fulfill its obligations to preserve the unique and valued culture around the world. In doing so, this would promote and preserve the basis of NATO’s creation: democracy. As a result, not only would this express collectivism along with individualism, by working together to secure individual countries but would allow the freedom of expressing and preserving one's culture and religion. Thus, going back to the question, “What is the cruciality of NATO increasing defense commitments to the Baltic States?”, it is undoubtedly crucial to do so, as it is solely a matter of life and death.
References
(www.dw.com), Deutsche Welle. “NATO: Why Russia Has a Problem with Its Eastward Expansion: DW: 23.02.2022.” DW.COM, https://www.dw.com/en/nato-why-russia-has-a-problem-with-its-eastward-expansion/a-60891681.
18, Kate Shellnutt and Forum. “Russia Keeps Punishing Evangelicals in Crimea.” News & Reporting, Christianity Today, 23 Feb. 2022, https://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2022/february/crimea-russia-protestant-christians-religious-freedom.html.
“About NATO.” U.S. Mission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 28 July 2021, https://nato.usmission.gov/about-nato/.
Democracy in America - ELTE. http://seas3.elte.hu/coursematerial/LojkoMiklos/Alexis-de-Tocqueville-Democracy-in-America.pdf.
DeYoung, Karen. “Baltic Countries Want a Longer NATO Commitment to Counter Russia.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 26 Feb. 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/baltic-countries-want-a-longer-nato-commitment-to-counter-russia/2016/02/26/811c200c-dcae-11e5-81ae-7491b9b9e7df_story.html.
Ellyatt, Holly. “Putin's Popularity Rating Falls to Lowest Level in over Two Decades amid Coronavirus Outbreak.” CNBC, CNBC, 6 May 2020, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/coronavirus-russia-putins-popularity-rating-falls-to-historic-low.html.
Greene, Samuel A., and Graeme B. Robertson. “Perspective | Putin's Power Depends on His Popularity. That Makes Him Vulnerable.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 30 Aug. 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/putins-power-depends-on-his-popularity-that-makes-him-vulnerable/2019/08/27/c5e0cf1a-b4a2-11e9-8e94-71a35969e4d8_story.html.
Heinrich Brauß Dr. András Rácz, et al. “Russia's Strategic Interests and Actions in the Baltic Region.” DGAP, 3 Nov. 2020, https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.
J., Gelfand Michele, et al. “The Cultural Evolutionary Trade-off of Ritualistic Synchrony.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 29 June 2020, https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2019.0432.
Judson, Jen. “Do the Baltics Need More US Military Support to Deter Russia?” Defense News, Defense News, 15 July 2019, https://www.defensenews.com/land/2019/07/15/do-the-baltics-need-more-us-military-support-to-deter-russia/.
Kirby, Paul. “Why Has Russia Invaded Ukraine and What Does Putin Want?” BBC News, BBC, 17 Apr. 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589.
Lasconjarias, Guillaume. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, Scandinavian Military Studies, 21 Aug. 2019, https://sjms.nu/articles/10.31374/sjms.18/.
The Moscow Times. “Putin's Approval Rating Drops to Historic Low: Poll.” The Moscow Times, The Moscow Times, 21 Apr. 2022, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/05/06/putins-approval-rating-drops-to-historic-low-poll-a70199.
Nikon D810 | The Song of Freedom at the Estonian ... - Youtube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCDsPbUORtc.
Peck, Michael. “NATO's Greatest Fear: Russia's Air Force Could Easily Overrun the Baltics.” The National Interest, The Center for the National Interest, 23 May 2021, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/natos-greatest-fear-russia%E2%80%99s-air-force-could-easily-overrun-baltics-176408.
Putin’s Plan Is a Threat to the Baltic States - Upnorth. https://upnorth.eu/putins-plan-is-a-threat-to-the-baltic-states/.
Roblin, Sebastien. “A2/AD: The Phrase That Terrifies the U.S. Military (and China and Russia Love It).” The National Interest, The Center for the National Interest, 9 Apr. 2019, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/a2ad-phrase-terrifies-us-military-and-china-and-russia-love-it-51597.
“The Russian Antiaccess/Area Denial Security Issue over Kaliningrad and the Baltics.” Air University (AU), https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Wild-Blue-Yonder/Article-Display/Article/2659250/the-russian-antiaccessarea-denial-security-issue-over-kaliningrad-and-the-balti/.
“Russian Encroachment in the Baltics: The Role of Russian Media and Military.” Foreign Policy Research Institute, 22 June 2021, https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/12/russian-encroachment-in-the-baltics-the-role-of-russian-media-and-military-2/.
“Russia's Existential Threat to NATO in the Baltics - FPRI.” Foreign Policy Research Institute, 17 July 2017, https://www.fpri.org/2017/06/russias-existential-threat-nato-baltics/.
Seth G. Jones holds the Harold Brown Chair. “The Return of Political Warfare.” Defense360, 25 Apr. 2018, https://defense360.csis.org/return-political-warfare/.
“Six Ways NATO Can Address the Russian Challenge.” Atlantic Council, 4 July 2018, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/six-ways-nato-can-address-the-russian-challenge/.
Tanner, Jari. “Estonia Says Russian Planes Violate Its Airspace, Again.” AP NEWS, Associated Press, 16 June 2021, https://apnews.com/article/estonia-europe-russia-government-and-politics-0d8093ef24df05d587dd9b0f06352762.
“What Is NATO and Why Was It Formed?” The Independent, Independent Digital News and Media, 15 Apr. 2022, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/when-nato-formed-russia-ukraine-b2058792.html.
Commentaires