Kalshi Hell, Polymarket Purgatory, and Where American Society May Be Headed

Written by: Bryce Ma

Edited by: Nili Desai

On July 24, 2026, LeBron James signed a two-year, roughly $8-million deal with the Philadelphia 76ers (Vaidya). This monumental move signaled to many the end of LeBron’s era (Nadkarni). In the weeks before he decided to take his talents to Philadelphia, about $226 million in trading volume circulated on Kalshi predicting where he would sign (Horney). Kalshi's prediction markets made such a sharp contrast between the contract and the conversation possible. While Kalshi is neither publicly traded nor required to disclose earnings, some July 2026 predictions estimate the company earning an estimated $4 billion in revenue (“Kalshi Revenue”). The perceived value and actual value of entertainment have grown increasingly distant. An entertainer’s diminishing value illustrates a clear cultural shift in how currency is perceived, wielded, and consolidated, with their influence being used for control rather than an expression of thought.

Defining entertainment is imperative, as this term is often employed broadly. Merriam-Webster defines entertainment as “amusement or diversion provided especially by performers” (“Entertainment”). This definition can be applied to news, podcasts, and, primarily, social media in modern times. All references to entertainment will be based on this definition.

In the current state of modern American entertainment, some fundamental issues have become increasingly apparent, stemming mainly from capitalism. Particularly, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as exchanges rather than sportsbooks, thus allowing themselves to be used outside of the limited entertainment field of sports. Expanding their reach across nearly the entire entertainment industry, prediction markets have fundamentally shifted sports discussion from passion to fiscal benefit. Despite the potential moral issues that these prediction markets hold, one thing remains clear: entertainment is becoming more profitable and all-encompassing than ever. Arts and cultural industries added $1.17 trillion to the US economy in 2023 alone, growing at more than twice the rate of the economy as a whole (United States, Bureau of Economic Analysis).

Yet, the attention that entertainment attracts has posed multiple issues in the past. Roman poet Juvenal coined the phrase panem et circenses circa 100 CE as a satirical accusation. “The Roman public has abandoned everything it once cared about for two things: grain and games” (Juvenal 10.77-81). The grain and games, otherwise known as ‘bread and circuses’, that Juvenal wrote about serve as a critique of the Roman public. The bread and circuses were largely free (Devereaux), so the public consumed them en masse and became so pacified by entertainment that they forgot simple civic duties such as political participation.

When cross-referenced with today, nearly all of the original ideas of the doctrine of bread and circuses have remained consistent with how American entertainment is choosing to progress. Once again, the use of prediction markets attracts the opportunity of capital from entertainment, acting as another of the multitude of distractions that shift attention away from politics and towards the entertainment value it holds. As such, modern entertainment demands the public’s attention primarily through fiscal means. The devolution of the circus has only led to further ignorance across the United States. Diverting attention from real-world issues creates an illusion that the public does not need to worry about said issues, much like what had occurred in Roman times.

For example, LeBron James’s free agency decision had the third-largest pool in Kalshi’s market history, with the two above it being the 2026 World Cup and the 2028 Democratic primaries (“Miami Heat”). When placed within prediction markets, important political events have their significance diluted into simply another form of entertainment, with 14% of registered voters saying that they sometimes bet on prediction markets (Harty and Coursens) and nearly four in ten of midterm voters believing that prediction markets reflect the likely outcome of elections (Partnership for Large Election Jurisdictions). For comparison, when Tiberius removed the people’s ability to vote and instead placed it with the magistrates in 14 CE, Tacitus noted that the people had only responded: “in mere idle talk”. Ironically, in that same passage, new games for Augustus were given to the public (Tacitus 1.15). These two examples show a necessary contrast, where Rome’s votes were substituted for entertainment; America’s votes have instead become part of it.

To conclude, the evolution of modern media has led to endless consequences as citizens have become increasingly distracted, to the point that our actions mimic those of the citizens who contributed to the decline of Rome. A single action cannot solve the root issues of capitalism, as these issues are woven into the very founding of the U.S. However, it may be possible to limit the system’s consequences through a progression of measures against prediction markets, which act as a small step towards separating politics and entertainment. Congress should be a place to begin: a bipartisan Senate bill from Republicans John Curtis and Todd Young alongside Democrats Elissa Slotkin and Adam Schiff would bar political officials from betting on prediction markets while in office, similar to the possibility of a Congressional stock trading ban (“Curtis Slotkin”). Additionally, action against these markets from further encroaching is entirely possible through action by the public: 65% of Americans oppose betting on U.S. military actions, and about 9 in 10 Democrats and Republicans alike said members of Congress must not be able to bet on political events (“Most Americans Reject”). Therefore, through both Congress and public action, we may be able to rid political matters of merely being perceived as entertainment; so, with midterms approaching, we must understand what is at stake if we fail to break the shackles of American entertainment laid upon us, if America fails to act accordingly, and how it may mirror what happened to Roman citizens.

Works Cited

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